He had built his business installing roofs for "tract" builders. As a result, he had enjoyed a robust enterprise for nearly 10 consecutive years. Now, there was no tract work at all, and what was left was so competitive as to be worthless. What puzzled me, even at the time of our talk and even though discretion prevented me from commenting at the time, was that he was genuinely stunned by the turn of events. Did he not see that was supplying labor to an industry that was rolling in an orgy of speculation and leverage? How could anyone think that the constant parade of new developments would continue unabated into the indefinite future? Was he surprised that I was not?
My second conversation was with an established contractor specializing in remodeling and custom building. Their perspective on the current state of business mirrored my own: things were definitely slowing down, but there is still plenty of projects needing attention and although one had to be more competitive, there was no shortage of good business about. I was struck by the remarkable contrast to the woes of my previous friend's dissertation.
Stepping back, it makes perfect sense that the owners of buildings who have moved little, who plan on staying put and remain proud of their home or business haven't really changed. The old standby roof coverings like asphalt and wood have short lifespans and will all need to be replaced. When homes and buildings were disposable assets, these short lifespans were of little concern because the building would be sold and the roof replacement would become someone else's problem. Now that "flipping" houses and rapidly "moving up" are symbols of a passed time, there is renewed concern about longterm value for maintenance issues like roofs. Something with a life expectancy of only 10 or 20 years - like the vast majority of asphalt roofs - doesn't seem like such a good deal. And the upgrade to something that can last generations is suddenly more appealing than ever.
Crisis? What crisis? Happy days are here!
